Bowen Wang
7th Grade, Central Middle School
San Carlos, CA
Aftershock Oracle: Machine Learning-Based Aftershock Risk Forecasting for Earthquake Safety
Living in California, Bowen knows that while earthquakes are deadly, aftershocks can be dangerous as well. He compared machine learning models, training them on datasets of earthquake and aftershock data from the United States Geological Survey. He created an Aftershock Oracle, which predicts where and how strong aftershocks will be.
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Project Background
Bowen is no stranger to earthquakes. “My house is only a few miles away from the San Andreas Fault,” he says. “Over the past year, there have been several earthquakes that woke me up at night.” The main earthquake is the one that makes headlines, but it’s usually followed by aftershocks, smaller quakes that diminish over time. Bowen knew that the aftershocks are also incredibly dangerous. He wanted to use machine learning to try to better predict the magnitude, frequency and location of aftershocks.
Tactics and Results
Earthquakes are very difficult to predict. But aftershocks after that quake are another matter. “They follow distinct, predictable patterns that correlate to the mainshock, making them possible to study and predict,” Bowen says. He compared three machine learning models — XGBoost, Logistic Regression and Random Forest — training them on locations of tectonic plates and all the earthquake data between 1950 and 2025 from the United States Geological Survey. He separated out the mainshocks and the aftershocks, asked each model to predict aftershock risk. All the models predicted aftershocks well, but Bowen found that XGBoost performed best. Using it, he created a tool called Aftershock Oracle, that allows users to put in information about the main earthquake, and get predictions about the location, frequency, and strength of the aftershocks.
Beyond the Project
Bowen plays competitive ice hockey and has been attending multiple hockey camps to improve at his sport. “Hockey helps build mental discipline and trains me to stay focused under pressure,” he says. He also loves to read. “Reading has redefined the way that I look at myself, and I think of it as not just a hobby, but a part of who I am,” he says. Bowen would like to be a civil engineer. “One day, I will start my own firm and prove that practical, modern design and ecological responsibility can coexist,” he says.
